Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 1046.336832 1200.110152 1376.704754 1596.333016 1864.713692 2185.354747 2.602547e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 836.885462 1031.729458 1278.738225 1621.865404 2097.861666 2753.586587 3.760821e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 735.932194 949.837298 1238.978958 1671.926458 2329.329516 3337.635304 5.109057e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 654.774311 874.684947 1186.848314 1682.690575 2493.236017 3855.773446 6.558966e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 583.661250 800.595512 1120.483476 1653.093876 2578.162266 4259.764664 7.981564e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 540.670646 760.419395 1096.465490 1682.309184 2763.642440 4895.791362 1.021483e+04
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 488.012852 698.718017 1029.482646 1625.885198 2778.108347 5197.706346 1.185113e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 446.365469 649.399788 975.751733 1582.666653 2806.306417 5536.100534 1.381298e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 409.970386 604.717516 924.225084 1534.741153 2813.441408 5828.574267 1.586568e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 397.965710 598.330212 936.597967 1608.307180 3094.967264 6902.615438 2.158595e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 382.726974 584.870411 934.643216 1652.944830 3323.118992 7941.092924 2.853417e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 368.594258 571.857026 931.752701 1694.804744 3555.945046 9112.327933 3.806413e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 344.792992 541.429676 896.090066 1667.831943 3626.378064 9870.514530 4.738294e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 329.594142 525.204519 886.070941 1696.970990 3860.593610 11375.478983 6.652499e+04
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 318.482404 515.183783 886.625040 1749.895592 4180.342258 13468.301428 1.006441e+05
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 304.195156 497.986470 870.824272 1761.354452 4382.656763 15259.210455 1.444211e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 287.259658 474.441783 839.601027 1729.919246 4441.429053 16448.460141 1.913686e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 277.389761 463.554261 833.522043 1760.946803 4720.728871 19095.946586 3.088390e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 260.752339 438.376169 794.746904 1701.032907 4665.482662 19804.419769 3.913005e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 246.631928 417.218504 762.863569 1655.168329 4650.725473 20799.838072 5.205499e+05
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 233.245094 396.691067 730.707088 1604.336628 4605.046393 21589.858271 6.827010e+05
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 230.423062 396.957568 744.358961 1682.375824 5091.989043 26967.807608 1.757299e+06
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 225.449751 392.501175 746.943856 1729.761257 5479.466601 32409.683889 5.083806e+06